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January 05, 2007

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Alan Rimm-Kaufman

"Google collapses when Advertising Inc realizes 'bots' are accounting for most of the page views...and bots don't buy stuff."

Errrr... all serious Google advertisers track sales, and the sales are really there. The clicks are converting. Real customers, real credit cards, real orders, real revenue.

If the clicks don't convert, the advertisers cut those ads quickly.

Taking Holiday 2006 for example, across a large portfolio of B2C and B2C search clients with significant Google spend, we saw strong conversion and profits.

Recent data and discussion at

http://www.rimmkaufman.com/rkgblog/2007/01/02/holiday-2006-sales-performance/

and subsequent posts.

So while I agree with your "First Half" 1, 2, and 4, and with your "Second Half" 1, 2, and 3, respectfully, I think you're off base on your "First Half" #2.

Cheers --

Alan

Andrew Scott

A nicely concise article and great read! I'm with Chris Comella and sure that 'most' page views are bot driven, but there is certainly a backlash yet to be had about clickthrus and spam/fake clicks. Meanwhile, lets hope your last prediction is right, as we're doing all sorts of fun stuff ;-) Cheers,
Andrew, Founder www.playtxt.net

chrisco

Interesting, but way I think at least a little exaggerated:

1) The advertising model is not going to collapse. Advertising dollars may shift around, rise and fall, but the model will not collapse.

2) I don't think any/many of us knows for sure, but I doubt botnets account for "most" page views.

3) I think most institutional investors know that 'participating in an important space' is not the same thing as actually making money. Those that don't will soon be looking for new jobs.

Cheers!
-Chris Comella, Founder
BuzzPal - The World Is Your Party
http://www.buzzpal.com

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